Yeddyurappa fourth dimension to 2013 Assembly elections
B.S.Nagaraj
Has B.S.Yeddyurappa crossed the Rubicon? Has he made up his mind to leave the BJP and float a new party?
The fiesty former chief minister has been using every occasion, every forum to make us believe he indeed is calling it quits. In another two months, we should know. Yeddyurappa is looking at a mid-December date for a public announcement of his plans for the future.
It is not for the first time that Yeddyurappa has stoked speculation about his leaving the party to whose growth he has contributed in large measure all these years. On earlier occasions though, he has held himself back on the strength of a concession here and a concession there.
Will it be the same this time around too? Unlikely. The rift is far too wide. There appears to be clarity in the minds of the BJP national leadership and Yeddyurappa that a divorce is but inevitable. For the last few weeks, he tried convincing BJP chief Nitin Gadkari that he should be made president of the state unit. Gadkari hasn't obliged. And Yeddyurappa has promptly retaliated in public, not just against Gadkari but L.K.Advani, even if obliquely, as well. He has accused them of falling prey to bete noire Ananth Kumar's machinations against him.
And there was more evidence today, at least from Yeddyurappa's side that there is little room for compromise. Party bigwig Arun Jaitely arrived in Bangalore apparently for a chat with Yeddyurappa. But the latter would have none of it. "I am not meeting him ... Jaitely has come here for a programme with which I have no connection," he said, before conveniently pushing off to his home district Shimoga.
Elections are due to the Karnataka Legislative Assembly before May 2013. If the parting of ways between Yeddyurappa and the BJP has to happen, it can't wait for long. While the BJP will have to find a new leader -- Jagadish Shettar may be chief minister but Ananth Kumar will not give up his claim to the top job -- Yeddyurappa will have to build a new party. Many of his supporters will probably go with him but floating a new party will require a lot of prepartion.
Yeddyurappa's imminent exit from the BJP will add an interesting fourth dimension to Karnataka's electoral politics in the coming months. Minus the BJP association, the Congress shouldn't be too shy of doing post-poll business with him. Hints to that effect have already been dropped from both sides. Yeddyurappa has solid backing from the numerically-strong Lingayats, a constituency that has been lost to the Congress for some years now. The chances of Yeddyurappa and H.D.Kumaraswamy's Janata Dal (Secular) forgiving and forgetting their bitterness don't appear bright, at least for now.
Yeddyurappa may be a popular leader but his last two years have been ignominous. Corruption cases and a stint in jail have dented his image. Assuming that his support base will remain undisturbed is risky.